Majority Writers

The Watershed Vote

In 2024 an opinion poll was published which indicated that only 27% of voters in the UK General Election  actually voted for their party of choice. This is because due to the First-Past-The-Post system, voters may be motivated more by stopping their least-favoured party, than by supporting their most favoured. Polls which ask ‘which party do you support?’ produce quite different results than those which ask ‘which party will you vote for?’

Over time voters tend to coalesce around the parties with the best chance of winning, and supporters of minor parties get ‘squeezed.’ Voters who don’t vote for the winning party will rally behind the runner-up to ‘get them out!’ Parties who suffer significant drops in support will lose heavily, but provided they retain their challenger position, normally will again attract votes from people keen to remove the strongest party from office. What has happened recently is that uniquely, support for both main parties has collapsed simultaneously. The fear that not voting Labour would let the Tories in, and vice-versa, has diminished. Mandelson’s crass pronouncement that Left voters have ‘nowhere else to go’ has been comprehensively debunked. Reform have eaten into the Tory vote and the Greens have eaten into the Labour vote.

There has been discussion in the Majority Chat about whether to vote tactically for the best party to defeat Reform, even if it is Labour. This may seem contrary to the origins of Majority, many of whose members have bitter memories of Labour Party involvement.

The point I would make is that we are now in a very fluid voting situation. With support spread between five parties, seats can be won with a little as 21% of the vote. There have been major shifts in national polling since the General Election, with little opportunity in many cases to see how these changes translate locally. It is very likely that many voters will have little idea of the local position, I have certainly canvassed voters genuinely anguished about ‘letting Reform in.’

Combine with new boundaries in many cases, and it becomes very difficult for any voter to forecast the leading contenders. In this situation a vote for the candidate who appears best placed to beat Reform may end up putting your first choice candidate in third place or worse, and liable to being squeezed next time. Under a FPTP system, if you are not first you must ensure you are second and in a place to challenge next time. If you lend your vote now, you may not get it back again in any meaningful sense.

Vote with your heart this time, vote with your head when the situation is clearer.